My little clutch of speckled eggs are doing just fine. I stayed out of the market for quite some time, having learned the very worst way back in 2000 or there abouts. You know what I’m talking about, the bursting of the Dot Com bubble. And I wasn’t even too deeply speculative. I picked some self-evident winners and ignored a lot of advice. So yes I got in on Netscape back in the day. What I didn’t do was cash in my gains on a periodic basis and ended up losing.. I still pout when I think about it. Let’s just say I ended up losing a down payment on a house that would today be worth somewhere around 1.7 million bucks, yes even now. I remain quite sanguine about all that, because in fact, I’ve had worse luck and because I’ve always had my inner peace since my daughters were born.
One of the things I hope to do here at the Downside is to gather a few experts in various fields to sign on as co-authors of various sections. Investment is going to be one of those sections. And, building on the premise that I suggested before, we are going to have to talk about means-tested disasters. Everywhere from slight downturn in the market, to fiscal cliff, to hyperinflation to global meltdown. I’ve spent some time over at ZeroHedge, and they have a mix of paranoia over there. Now is a good time for me to check them out again.
You see I’ve been picking stocks, and this year I’m proud to say that I’ve done about 23% on my portfolio (so far). With any luck I’ll be able to retain those earnings. The problem is that as I see it, the downside scenario that is the most likely to occur is continuation and worsening of economic bad times. That means first of all that my investment strategy needs to change in anticipation of the bad news.
This brings me to a number of points.
1. I need to begin to understand bond funds.
2. I will be publishing financial & investment information here at the Downside
3. I obviously expect that there’s not going to be a complete global financial meltdown any time soon.
4. Let me introduce to you my financial gurus.
On that last point a bit of background. A couple years back I determined that I was reading far too broadly and listening to too many people who didn’t deserve my attention. To help focus myself I took on what I called the T50 project -which is basically to identify the Top 50 thinkers I would bother reading. So if we could imagine the desert island scenario – which 50 books would you take, I’d take the best books of the T50. Well and also “How To Build An Airplane From Coconut Palms”.
My Financial Gurus
Niall Ferguson, Tyler Cowen, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, David P. Goldman